Verdict: False Confidence: High Claim status: Mutating Last reviewed: October 21, 2026 Original source: Concerned Canadian on X — February 11, 2026 — Earliest traceable — archived post
Short answer
No. A February graphic reversed Angus Reid's published finding, and an election-night image invented an Angus Reid exit poll that the institute never conducted or published. Angus Reid's actual February and October surveys both found roughly two-thirds support for remaining in Canada.
Claim breakdown
Component | Finding | Why |
The February graphic showed genuine Angus Reid data: 65% leave, 29% stay. | False | Angus Reid reported the reverse pattern: 65% definitely or probably stay and 29% definitely or probably leave. |
The October 19 graphic was an Angus Reid exit poll showing 59.7% for leaving. | False | Angus Reid said the graphic was fabricated, was not its data and did not use its logo. |
Angus Reid's actual pre-vote research found majority support for remaining in Canada. | True | Its final October survey reported 66% for remaining and 34% for beginning a future separation-referendum process. |
The preliminary referendum count also showed a large remain majority. | True | About three-quarters chose remaining in Canada in the preliminary count; official results were still due October 29. |
What's true
Angus Reid did conduct several surveys about Alberta separation, and support for beginning a future separation process was substantial. Its February survey estimated 29% would definitely or probably vote to leave. Its October 13–15 survey reported 34% for Option 2. Those are meaningful minority positions, not evidence that the circulated graphics were authentic.
What's wrong or missing
The graphics borrowed Angus Reid's name while changing or inventing its findings. The February image flipped the published result. The October image presented invented “exit poll” numbers and branding during voting. Neither was a faithful summary of the institute's work.
What the evidence shows
Angus Reid's February 9 report said 57% would definitely vote to stay and another 8% leaned toward staying, while 8% would definitely vote to leave and 21% leaned toward leaving. AFP documented the February image circulating on X, Facebook and Instagram with the stay and leave numbers reversed. Angus Reid's final pre-vote survey reported 66% for remaining in Canada and 34% for beginning a future separation-referendum process. It surveyed 1,010 Alberta adults online from October 13–15 and disclosed its weighting and methodology; it was not an exit poll. On referendum night, a new graphic claimed an Angus Reid exit poll found 59.7% support for leaving. Angus Reid president Shachi Kurl said it was completely fabricated and not rooted in the institute's data or logo. AFP preserved instances on TikTok, X and Facebook. The preliminary vote count later showed roughly three-quarters choosing to remain, though the official result was still scheduled for October 29. These sources answer different questions: archived posts and AFP establish what circulated; Angus Reid's publications establish what it actually measured; the official vote and independent reporting provide result context.
What remains uncertain
The original creators of both graphics are not established. Total cross-platform reach, audience nationality and the number of people who believed or acted on the images cannot be measured from the available records. The February and October graphics share a claim family and technique, but the evidence does not establish that the same person or group made both. Official referendum results were pending at this review.
What would change our conclusion
An authenticated Angus Reid publication, dataset or archived release matching either circulated graphic would overturn the relevant authenticity finding. Verifiable evidence that Angus Reid conducted the claimed October exit poll would also change the conclusion. Later official results or new polling could update the public-opinion context, but would not make a previously fabricated graphic authentic.
Why it matters to Canadians
Fabricated polling can manufacture political momentum and mislead voters about what their neighbours believe. During a sovereignty referendum, false institutional branding can also make a legitimate result appear implausible and feed later election-fraud allegations.
Evidence trail
- Archived February 11 X post — earliest traceable instance reviewed; establishes circulation, not authorship or accuracy.
- Angus Reid, February 9 survey — gives the actual 65% stay and 29% leave combined findings and methodology.
- AFP Canada, February 17 fact-check — preserves the reversed graphic and documents cross-platform circulation.
- Archived Jeffrey Rath X post — preserves a prominent election-night amplification; it was conditional and does not establish creation.
- Angus Reid, October 16 survey — gives the institute's actual final pre-vote estimate and methodology.
- AFP Canada, October 20 fact-check — preserves the election-night graphic and Angus Reid's direct repudiation.
- Associated Press, October 20 — independent context for the preliminary referendum result.
Review status
Ready for publication. Linked narrative: NAR-20261021-001. The origin of the graphics remains unverified; the earliest traceable publication is disclosed separately from the verification evidence.